Crash of TWA 800: Analysis of two possible causes.
Not a bomb.
Not a missile, friendly or enemy.
Not a meteor/space debris.
Not pilot or other crew error.
Not environment/weather factors.
Not air traffic control.
Not other aircraft/midair.
What else is there?
Mechanical/equipment failure.
What failed?
What is the evidence?
Yes, aircraft was in climb.
Yes, visual streak observed at event.
Yes, primary radar return recorded just before event.
Yes, secondary radar return disappeared abruptly.
Yes, sudden loud sound heard on cockpit voice recorder, CVR.
Yes, abrupt power cut to flight data recorder, FDR.
Yes, fifteen never recovered bodies after extensive search.
Yes, nose separated from rest of aircraft.
Yes, one or more engines exhibited foreign object damage, FOD.
Yes, fireball observed.
Yes, center fuel tank exploded.
Yes, explosive damage on wreckage.
Yes, two main wreckage trails.
Yes, nose wreckage was closer to event than rest of aircraft wreckage.
Yes, breakup started at forward part of fuselage, over or just in front of wing.
Yes, aircraft was high time/high cycles Boeing 747-131.
Yes, 230 people died.
What initial mechanical/equipment failure caused the crash and still satisfies the evidence?
There are only two; center fuel tank explosion and inadvertent opening of the forward cargo door. Which is more likely? Let us examine them side by side.
Climb: Fuel tank contents were same as takeoff, climb should have no effect on explosion.Or: Climb is pressure changing mode of flight and might assist in popping cargo door.
Streak: Fuel streaming out of wing and somehow catching fire leading to explosion. Or: Shiny metal cargo door with white fuselage skin attached spinning away at orange dusk on clear summer night at 13700 feet.
Radar blip anomaly just before event: Tank fire doesn't fit. Or: Large metal cargo door with fuselage skin attached spinning away at 13700 feet close to ground radar site.
Secondary radar return disappeared abruptly. Center fuel tank exploded and cut off power to transponder. Or: Cargo door opened and with fuselage skin tore away and allowed 300 knot wind to enter gash on right side which tore off nose severing power to main equipment compartment housing transponder.
Sudden loud sound on CVR. Tank explodes and sound is recorded on cockpit voice recorder before power is severed. Or: Cargo door with fuselage skin tore away causing explosive decompression loud sound to be recorded on cockpit voice recorder before power is severed.
Abrupt power cut to flight data recorder. Center fuel tank exploded and cut off power to FDR. Cargo door with fuselage skin tore away and allowed 300 knot wind to enter gash on right side which tore off nose severing power to main equipment compartment housing FDR.
Fifteen never recovered bodies: Center tank explosion cremated passengers sitting in explosion area. Or: Cargo door and fuselage skin tore away exposing passengers who were ejected in decompression and sucked into number 3 jet engine and cremated.
Nose separated from rest of aircraft: Center tank explosion cuts fuselage in two just forward of the wing. Or: Cargo door with fuselage skin tore away and allowed 300 knot wind to enter gash on right side which tore off nose just forward of the wing.
One or more engines foreign object damage. Center tank explosion ejects debris into running engines. Or: Cargo door tore away exposing baggage compartment which explosive decompression ejects material into engines.
Center fuel tank exploded into fireball. Center tank explodes from unknown ignition source. Or: Cargo door with fuselage skin tore away and allowed 300 knot wind to enter gash on right side which tore off nose allowing rest of wing and fuselage to fall and disintegrate into mass of fuel vapor and spinning jet engines which exploded.
Explosive damage on wreckage. Center tank explodes. Or: Cargo door with fuselage skin tore away allowing explosive decompression to occur in passenger compartment and cargo hold which mimics explosion.
Two main wreckage trails. Center tank explodes, severs nose which falls into tight wreckage pattern and rest of aircraft disintegrates into a larger wreckage trail. Or: Cargo door with fuselage skin tore away and allowed 300 knot wind to enter gash on right side which tore off nose which fell into tight wreckage trail and rest of aircraft fell and disintegrated into larger wreckage trail.
Nose wreckage was closer to event than rest of aircraft wreckage. Center tank explodes, severs nose which falls into tight wreckage pattern and rest of aircraft disintegrates into a larger wreckage trail. Or: Cargo door with fuselage skin tore away and allowed 300 knot wind to enter gash on right side which tore off nose which fell into tight wreckage trail and rest of aircraft fell and disintegrated into larger wreckage trail.
Breakup started at forward part of fuselage, over on just in front of wing .Center tank near forward part of wing explodes. Or: Cargo door and fuselage skin tears away just forward of the wing.
Aircraft was high time/cycles Boeing 747-131.
Two hundred thirty people died.
So, two theories exist which explain much of the evidence. Here is why the cargo door theory is more credible than the center tank explosion theory.
Mechanical/equipment failure. Both are mechanical/equipment failure, Center tank has yet to be discovered essential ignition source which isn't supposed to be ignition source while cargo door is a complicated, previously known to fail and kill, mechanical system with four airworthiness directives against if. Cargo door more likely failure.
Streak at event. Metal door with metal skin spinning away could be reflected orange dusk light and appear as streak. Time of year, altitude, clear night, sun angle, and type of object all fit streak as spinning door. Tank fire with streaming fuel on fire is less likely. Cargo door more likely streak.
Primary radar return before event. Metal door with metal skin spinning away could be primary radar return recorded on nearby ground radar. Center tank would not give return. Cargo door more likely radar return.
Secondary radar return disappeared abruptly. Center tank explosion and nose separating when nine foot by 15 foot gash appears allowing 300 knot wind to enter and tear off nose would both cause abrupt secondary radar return to disappear. Tie.
Sudden loud sound on CVR. Center tank explosion and cargo door would both give sudden loud sound on CVR. Tie until sound matched to fuel tank explosion or explosive decompression.
Abrupt power cut to FDR. Center tank explosion and cargo door causing nose separation would both cause abrupt to FDR. Tie.
Fifteen missing bodies. Center tank explosion and cargo door would both cause missing never to be recovered bodies. Tie.
Nose separated from rest of aircraft. Center tank explosion would cause nose to separate. Cargo door with fuselage skin tore away and allowed 300 knot wind to enter gash on right side which tore off nose just forward of the wing. Tie.
One or more engines foreign object damage. Center tank explosion and cargo door opening would both cause engines to be fodded. Tie.
Fireball. Center tank explosion and cargo door opening leading to fuselage disintegration would both cause fireball. Tie.
Center fuel tank exploded. Center tank explosion and cargo door would both cause center tank to explode. Tie.
Explosive damage on wreckage. Center tank explosion and cargo door opening would both cause explosive type damage on wreckage. Tie unless no fire explosive damage found on nose section.
Two main wreckage trails. Center tank explosion and cargo door opening would both cause two main wreckage trails. Tie.
Nose wreckage was closer to event than rest of aircraft wreckage. Center tank explosion and cargo door would both cause nose wreckage to be closer to rest of aircraft wreckage. Tie.
Aircraft was high time/cycles Boeing 747-131. Center tank fire and cargo door more likely on aging aircraft. Tie.
Breakup started at forward part of fuselage, over on just in front of wing. Center tank explosion and cargo door opening would cause breakup at forward part of fuselage. Tie unless breakup is traced to above and forward of the wing on the right side, nearer to the cargo door.
Yes, 230 people died. Center tank explosion and cargo door could both cause the deaths of all passengers. Tie.
Many of the evidence explanations are ties, a few go to cargo door and none alone go to center tank fire. Cargo door theory is more likely.
Additional statements to support cargo door theory.
A structural breakup of a Boeing 747 which is disintegrating in flight can catch fire into a fireball as shown by the Saudi Arabian Airlines Boeing 747 involved in a midair over India. The initial event was not a center tank fire and yet there was fireball.
Eyewitness pilot saw the fireball of TWA 800 and stated altitude of fireball was 7500 feet, initial event for TWA 800 was at 13700 feet. Center tank fire was secondary event.
Foreign object damage can be cowling material or baggage or human material.
Explosive decompression produces loud sound and mimics a bomb for pressure damage on seats and baggage.
NTSB computer simulation traced inflight breakup of TWA 800 to above and forward of the wing on the right side, exactly where the hole is formed when the cargo door tears away with fuselage skin.
Cargo doors opening in flight are more common than inflight fuel tank explosions.
A cargo door accident exists, UAL 811, with much evidence which matches TWA 800. Two other Boeing 747 crashes exist with much evidence which matches TWA 800 and UAL 811, none of which was caused by a center tank fire.
Tank fire accident of Iranian Boeing 747 exists which does not match TWA 800 in wreckage pattern, left wing alone, or extreme weather and lightning.
A Boeing 737 tank fire on the ground does match a Boeing 747 in flight.
Cargo door theory includes center tank explosion.
Additional statement to support center tank explosion. It happened, there was a center tank explosion.
Forward cargo door theory can be proved or disproved easily be examination, experiment and observation:
1. examine forward cargo door for steel rods to confirm AD 88-12-04 complied with on TWA 800.
2. examine cargo door for status of cam latches, unlocked or locked.
3. examine cargo door lock sectors, unlocked or locked.
4. examine cargo door lock sectors and cam sectors for wear and gouging.
5. examine cargo door manual locking bar for locking position.
6. examine all door electrical switches for proper operation.
7. check maintenance history of TWA 800 for previous cargo door problems.
8. note condition of cargo door, in how many pieces to match UAL 811.
9. note position of cargo door when found, close to event site or far away indicating time it left aircraft.
9. detect frayed wiring in door control system.
10. examine direction of buckled floor beams, up or down indicating decompression or explosion.
11. match TWA 800 evidence with other similar crashes leaving similar evidence.
12. check for presence or non presence of evidence of fire/explosion on separated nose.
13. match sudden on loud sound on CVR to sound library of in flight aircraft explosions and decompressions.
14. match abrupt end of tape signals on FDR to two other abrupt end of tape Boeing 747 crashes.
15. confirm by computer simulation that 300 knot wind blowing into nine foot by 15 foot hole in right side of weakened nose will tear nose of in an second.
16. examine wreckage for more severe in flight debris damage on right side of aircraft to include wing fillet, leading edges of wing and horizontal stabilizer and vertical stabilizer, engine cowls and pylons.
A low cost experiment to reproduce the streak and radar anomaly is to take several two car garage doors painted silver and white and push them out the back of a C-130 going as fast as it can at 13700 feet on clear evening with same sun angle as July 17th near New York and look for streak and radar primary return. They will be there, two mysteries explained at reasonable cost.
Analogies:
1. A hole is cut in a balloon. A patch is put on the hole in balloon. The balloon is blown up and deflated 20000 times. The next inflation the balloon pops. The site of the popping is at the patch. The patch has failed before. The patch is a likely cause of the balloon popping.
2. A soda can has a semi cut hole in the top to drink out of. The can is the pressurized hull and quite strong. The semi cut hole can not be opened by pressing on it with fingers. But once the semi cut hole/door seal is broken by pressing on the hole with the metal tab using leverage, the soda fluid/debris escapes in the explosive decompression and flies into face/engines. Now the semi cut hole can easily be pressed down further with little force from finger because the structural integrity of the soda can/hull has been cracked.
Now is the time to investigate another reasonable mechanical cause theory, with evidence, the real possibility of inadvertent opening cargo door in flight. This event leads to a large gash in nose the size of double car garage door allowing twice hurricane force winds to enter and tear off weakened nose in a second leaving evidence of visual streak, radar blips, FOD, sudden loud sound on tape, abrupt power cut to FDR, same missing bodies in general same seating, damage start location of forward cargo hold in front of the wing on the right side, wreckage trails, and it happened to TWA Flight 800, it happened before to UAL Flight 811, and it will happen again.